Analyzing the Valuation Landscape: Are Smallcap and Midcap Stocks Overvalued in 2024? A Strategic Guide to Investing Rs 1 Lakh in Shares this Year

Deven Mehta’s Expert Strategy: A Balanced Portfolio for 2024 – Allocating 50% in Largecap, 30% in Midcap, and 20% in Smallcap Stocks

Arpit Jain’s Proven Formula: Unveiling the Investment Strategy for 20-30 Year-Olds with Moderate Risk Appetite – Allocating 60% in Large Cap and 40% in Midcap/Small Cap Stocks

1. Valuations Concerns: smallcap and midcap stocks are deemed unreasonable. This suggests that the current market prices of these stocks might be higher than their perceived intrinsic values, raising concerns about potential overvaluation.
2. Target Audience and Risk Profile: The recommended investment strategy is specifically targeted at investors aged 20-30 years who have a moderate risk appetite. This demographic is often considered to have a longer investment horizon and potentially more tolerance for risk compared to older investors.
3. Recommended Allocation: The suggested allocation strategy advises investors to allocate approximately 50-60% of their incremental investments in large cap stocks. Large cap stocks generally represent companies with a higher market capitalization and are often considered more stable. The remaining 40-50% of the investment should be distributed between midcap and smallcap stocks.
4. Practical Example: Using a practical example of a Rs 1 lakh proposed investment, the analysts recommend investing Rs 50,000-Rs 60,000 in large cap stocks. This represents the major portion of the investment and is likely intended to provide stability to the portfolio. The remaining Rs 40,000-Rs 50,000 can be diversified into midcap and smallcap stocks, potentially offering higher growth opportunities albeit with higher associated risks.
5. Analyst Guidance: The advice is attributed to a handful of brokerages, indicating that multiple financial experts or firms share a similar perspective on the investment strategy.

1. Valuation Metric: The Nifty Midcap100 index is trading at 27 times its one-year forward Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. PE ratio is a valuation metric that compares a company’s current stock price to its earnings per share. A higher PE ratio may suggest that the market has higher expectations for future earnings growth.
2. Premium to Average Valuations: The Nifty Midcap100 index is trading at a 35% premium to its average valuations. This means that investors are currently willing to pay a higher price for the stocks in this index compared to historical averages.
3. Comparison with Nifty: In contrast, the Nifty (presumably the Nifty 50 index) is trading at a less than 20% premium to its average valuations. This indicates that the valuation premium for the Nifty Midcap100 index is higher than that of the broader market represented by the Nifty.
4. Susceptibility to Sharp Sell-Off: Jefferies suggests that the higher premium on the Nifty Midcap100 index makes smallcap and midcap stocks within this index more susceptible to a sharp sell-off. A sharp sell-off could occur if investors become concerned about the elevated valuations and decide to sell their positions.

Jefferies is cautioning that the Nifty Midcap100 index’s relatively high valuation, especially compared to its historical average and the broader market, could pose a risk for smallcap and midcap stocks within this index, potentially leading to a significant downward correction in prices. Investors may interpret this information as a signal to carefully assess their holdings and consider the potential risks associated with the current valuation levels.

Arpit Jain, Joint MD at Arihant Capital Markets, advocates a portfolio allocation strategy for individuals in their 20-30 years with a moderate risk appetite. He recommends investing 60% in large-cap stocks and the remaining 40% in midcap and small-cap stocks. This strategy aims to balance stability and growth potential, providing an opportunity for high returns while maintaining a moderate level of risk.

Arpit Jain emphasizes that as a young investor, there’s room to assume a slightly higher level of risk. By allocating 60% of the investment portfolio to large-cap stocks, he believes investors can create a safety net or cushion. This safety net allows investors to comfortably take on some risk by allocating the remaining 40% to high-growth companies, particularly in the midcap and small-cap segments.

Deven Mehta, Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking, suggests a strategic allocation strategy for investors aged 20-30 years with a moderate risk appetite. According to Mehta:

1. Allocation to Large-Cap Stocks: He recommends investing 50% of the portfolio in large-cap stocks. Large-cap stocks are typically associated with stability and established companies, making them suitable for risk mitigation.
2. Allocation to Mid-Cap Stocks: Mehta suggests allocating 30% of the portfolio to midcap stocks. Midcap stocks are known for their growth potential, and a 30% allocation allows investors to tap into opportunities for higher returns while accepting a moderate level of risk.
3. Allocation to Small-Cap Stocks: The remaining 20% of the portfolio is advised to be allocated to small-cap stocks. Small-cap stocks represent companies with smaller market capitalization and higher growth potential, but they also come with higher volatility.

This allocation strategy seems to strike a balance between stability and growth, catering to the risk appetite of young investors. Here’s a breakdown:

• Stability (50%): Large-cap stocks provide stability to the portfolio.
• Moderate Growth (30%): Mid-cap stocks offer a balance of growth potential and moderate risk.
• Higher Growth Potential (20%): Small-cap stocks introduce a higher potential for returns but with increased risk.

Deven Mehta, Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking, suggests a strategic allocation for investors aged 20-30 with a moderate risk appetite in 2024. He recommends investing 50% in large-cap stocks, 30% in midcap stocks, and allocating the remaining 20% in small-cap stocks. This allocation is based on the performance trends observed in 2023, where midcap and smallcap stocks showed remarkable returns. Mehta believes that, at present, the risk-reward ratio appears more favorable for large-cap stocks.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, anticipates that large-cap and mega-cap shares will likely outperform midcap and smallcap stocks in 2024. He expresses the view that the earnings growth of midcap companies is expected to be superior to that of smallcaps. Chouhan notes that smallcap stocks appear to be the most expensive in comparison to their earnings growth potential.

In terms of his investment strategy, Chouhan outlines a mandate to invest a minimum of 50% in large caps, 30% in midcaps, and 20% in small caps. Importantly, he states that this allocation remains consistent irrespective of market conditions. The goal of this strategy is to generate optimal returns by maintaining a diversified portfolio across different market capitalizations.

Tanvi Kanchan, Head of Corporate Strategy at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, highlights that an asset allocation strategy with a well-diversified portfolio is crucial for managing risk and minimizing deviation from expected outcomes. This approach involves spreading investments across various asset classes, contributing to stability and effective risk management.

Tanvi Kanchan, Head of Corporate Strategy at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, emphasizes the variability in risk tolerance among investors and the importance of understanding the overall risk associated with an asset allocation strategy. For a moderate investor with a long-term perspective, Kanchan suggests allocating 50% to large-cap, 20% to midcap, and the remaining 30% to small-cap stocks. This allocation aims to balance stability, growth potential, and higher-risk opportunities.

Sunil Nyati, Managing Director at Swastika Investmart, notes that large-cap stocks are gaining momentum after a recent period of underperformance. He highlights this as a promising opportunity for investors, especially if there’s an increase in foreign institutional investments in the domestic market.

Sunil Nyati, Managing Director at Swastika Investmart, recommends a balanced portfolio allocation strategy. He suggests maintaining a 50% allocation in large-cap stocks to capitalize on potential positive shifts. Simultaneously, Nyati highlights opportunities in midcap and smallcap stocks, particularly considering expected political stability, potential interest rate cuts, and robust economic growth. To ensure a diversified portfolio, he recommends allocating 30% to midcap stocks.

Sunil Nyati, Managing Director at Swastika Investmart, further recommends a diversified approach by allocating 20% to small-cap stocks. This complements the overall strategy, providing investors with the potential to tap into emerging opportunities in the dynamic market environment.